Canada Prepares for Trade War "Siege" with US
If Canada fails to meet Aug. 19 deadline, some Canadian goods face 50% tariffs
The US is threatening to raise tariffs on Canada to 50%, starting Aug. 19.
Most Americans haven’t noticed, or figure this is just a Trump negotiating tactic, but Canada is taking the threat seriously.
Alarmism vs Calm Preparation?
There are a variety of responses online. The following video belongs to the more alarmist end of the spectrum.
It says that Canada has responded to the tariff threat by recalling their “entire” (overseas) military1 to defend Canada, dropping trade barriers between provinces in anticipation of a US economic siege.
Canada is said to be preparing for conflict by stress testing the idea of withholding energy and water from the US.
00:00 – Canada's Transition to a War Economy
00:44 – The Charlotte Town Summit: A War Room Briefing
02:00 – Removing Internal Trade Barriers & Tactical Logistics
03:06 – CPKC Railway & Shifting Supply Chain Priorities
04:16 – International Unity vs. Washington’s Isolation
05:01 – Safeguarding Power Grids & Resource Weaponization
06:11 – The Critical Leverage: Water and Uranium
07:11 – Repatriating the Canadian Armed Forces
08:16 – Arming the Arctic: Operation Latitude
09:34 – The Psychological Weapon: SEMA and Financial Retaliation
11:06 – A Sleeping Giant: The Macroeconomic Siege Begins
ELSEWHERE:
How a US Invasion of Canada Would Really Unfold—And How We Fight Back, The Walrus, Feb 5, 2026
Alberta separatist meetings part of U.S. efforts to ‘destabilize’ Canada, CBC, Jan 29, 2026
Trump eyes Canada as a next target amid standoff with Greenland, NBC News, Jan 18, 2026.
The U.S. has covertly destabilized nations. With Canada, it’s being done in public (CBC), March 12, 2025
Trump’s Aide Proposes Canada’s Expulsion from Five Eyes Alliance, First Post, Feb 26, 2025
DETAILS:
Trump’s tariff threat could impact Canadian economy but may be negotiation tactic, experts say
Fen Osler Hampson, a professor of international affairs at Carleton University in Ottawa, said the products hit by the tariffs are items U.S. consumers can decide not to purchase if prices rise.
Losing U.S. customers could lead to layoffs for companies that employ 10 to 200 workers that are the “backbone of the Canadian economy.”Charlotte Town Summit:
1) Powergrid
There are calls to break electric grid ties to the US and instead create a Canadian national power grid by connecting provincial networks using high voltage long distance DC power lines.
Could Trump tariffs energize ambitions for a trans-Canada power grid? (Prince Albert Daily Herald)
2) Weaponizing Resources
Canada can withhold potash and critical minerals.
3) Canadian Leverage: Water & Uranium
4) SEMA and Financial Retaliation
Full list of Canadian Goods to be tariffed
The Canadian provinces most impacted would be Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia. (ABC News)
Should Canada Weaponize Energy?
[Ontario Premier Doug] Ford called for tit-for-tat tariffs on Tuesday and suggested the provinces could "dismantle the U.S. if we wanted to" by exerting pressure through energy exports.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe have so far drawn a hard line against using their province’s cross-border exports in negotiation tactics.
Smith said she doesn’t want to negotiate by “promising to punch someone in the nose.” Instead, she said, Canadian leaders should be promoting a “win-win” deal for both Ottawa and Washington.
She warned the U.S. could cut off oil and natural gas exports to Ontario2 and Quebec if Canada engages in a skirmish over energy.
“You have to be very careful not to put things on the table that you’re not prepared to do, and I’m going to try to prevent Canada from making a very dumb decision of putting energy on the table,” Smith said.
Provincial leaders differ on how hardline to approach things
Ontario Premier Doug Ford and British Columbia Premier David Eby know the tariffs have a much greater impact on their provinces. They are for a hard-line response. Ford goes even further, urging a “dollar for dollar” response to the tariffs much as he has since the Trump tariff war began. (Policy Magazine)
The Prime Minister has said that everything is on the table to retaliate. But the argument on how to respond could be the forerunner of a much bigger dispute when it becomes clear that Trump and his team are not interested in a real negotiation.
After all, how can real negotiations be held with a country that says the latest tariffs are American retaliation for Canadian tariffs applied to American exports to this country when those Canadian tariffs were in retaliation for the original tariffs Trump illegally applied to Canada to bully us into either joining the United States or becoming a vassal country?
.. A more substantive option would be for Canada to establish a national export agency for natural and energy resources. Its raison d’être would be justified by the fractured world trading system the American tariff regime has created.
.. The new board would have the same mandate for potash, critical minerals and a variety of forms of energy, particularly electricity.
Temporary reductions in supplies of potash ordered by the new board would quickly attract the attention of the mammoth American agribusiness sector. Lights flickering or going out, air conditioning or heat failing because of electrical brown-outs would quickly get Americans in New York or Detroit upset.
Controls on the export of critical minerals would hamper the development of artificial intelligence and other cutting-edge technologies, giving China a leg up in the race to control development for the rest of this century.
Legal Commentary: Tariff Laws
The U.S. justification for the new tariff is that the countries have failed to do enough to keep products made by forced labour out of their supply chains. (CBC)
“We’re not in favour of sweatshops, and we don’t want anyone else to be in favour of it either,” U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told CNN late Thursday afternoon, shortly after announcing the tariffs.
Forced labour is just the latest of the Trump administration’s shifting justifications for its tariff regimes. The changes have been forced upon them largely by the legal system, because of limits to the president’s powers to impose tariffs.
Canada will hike U.S. steel tariffs if it can’t make a trade deal next month, Carney says (CBC)
“There is not a chance in hell that U.S. alcohol is going back on the shelf in British Columbia,” he said. Eby also said, “I feel sorry for Americans. If you can’t be friends with Canada, then you almost certainly do not have a friend anywhere in the world.” (Benzinga)
HISTORY:
FOOTNOTES:
How big is the “entire” overseas military Canada is recalling?
The Enbridge Line 5 is a natural gas pipeline that goes through Michigan that supplies Ontario.