Video by Middle East Eye’s Unapoligetic: David Hearst (Editor-in-Chief)
Tim’s Comments:
On the day after the Israeli Elections, I heard this “Mid-East Eye” podcast describing the stigma against Jewish Israelis forming a coalition government with the Palestinian Israelis because even Zionist Palestinians are viewed as the enemy. The Palestinian Israelis turned out this election in record numbers because they see themselves voting against potential ethnic cleansing.
If Netanyahu wins, Israel will likely build in the E1 block in the West Bank, which could prevent a contiguous Palestinian state.
If Netanyahu loses or choses not to retain ultra-right coalition partners Ben-Gvir and Smotrich may mobilize their followers. Ben-Gvir has a militia of up to 250,000 people, which is part of what has prompted the CIA to warn of a potential Israeli Civil War.
According to the podcast, the likelihood of a major war with Iran has gone up, with Netanyahu a “caretaker” Prime Minister, at minimum.
Description
On this episode of UNAPOLOGETIC, we sat down with Middle East Eye editor-in-chief David Hearst the day after Israel’s elections, with Netanyahu’s bloc on course to be the largest and no side close to a majority.
David explains why a strike on Iran is now more likely than before the vote, how Ben-Gvir’s armed settler base shapes Netanyahu’s options, what a record Palestinian turnout means for citizens of Israel, and why so many observers got this election wrong.
UNAPOLOGETIC is hosted by Ashfaaq Carim.
Chapter 1: Intro highlights
A strike on Iran is now more likely than it was before the election. Do you think Netanyahu will consider, you know, allying with, forming a national unity government with Eisenkot and maybe shedding Smotrich and Ben-Gvir? Ben-Gvir has got a an armed militia uh, many thousands strong. It could be uh as many as 250,000 uh Israelis and settlers now have guns. Looks now like that that’s going to be incorrect and Netanyahu is going to be in pole position to form a government. Um why do you think they have gotten it wrong and what does it say about how outsiders see this? His promise that he made to his father Benzian Netanyahu who was a revisionist Zionist uh was as follows. I will get the kingdoms of Judea and Samaria. What’s going to be the fallout of another big strike by by Israel on Iran? I’d be very very surprised uh if Netanyahu now can’t squeeze out of this particular problem. Israel isn’t a democracy and Netanyahu is not a Democrat.
Chapter 2: No majority: what next?
Tough times. 3 2 1. Hi, good day. Welcome to another episode of Unapologetic. I’m your host, Ashwak Karim. Uh it’s the day after the Israeli elections and with me in studio today is our editor-in chief, David Hurst. David, welcome to the show once again. Thanks for having me. David, it’s always good to speak with you. Um, some would say a surprising result. Uh, 85% of the vote is counted. Netanyahu and his block are looking like they get about between 53 and 55 seats. Eisen Clark’s plot will get between about 48 to 50 seats. The Arab parties, which is the joint list and ROM looking like they will get about 17 to 19 seats, which is way more than they’ve ever gotten before. No one is going to get a majority. Uh, what are the options ahead? Well, if Israel were a normal democracy, um the Arab two Arab parties, Ram and the United List uh would be uh uh in the role of kingmakers because they’ve got uh phenomenal power and no block can be formed, no Zionist block can be formed without them. But Israel isn’t a democracy and Netanyahu is not a democrat. Um and he’s been in this position before. Um now he can um he can wait to see how many seats he actually has got and then peel off someone like Naftali Bennett or Lieberman who are in uh Eisenkot’s block and say hey what about you know ministry and you’ll be in government again and you’ll be in power. Uh he could form a national unity government uh with Eisenot. Um uh but there is a calculation here and that is that or for in or he could if he can’t do either of those things he can uh play for another vote uh which he’s done before as well. Um in fact as the leader of the largest party L could with something like what 24 seats 24 seats at the moment projected. Yeah. um he could easily be called by the president to form the next party uh which uh there are indications that that might be happening. Um uh if you look at it from the other side, from Eisenot’s block, they’ve got a choice. Either to go for power with the Arab vote uh which their supporters would say would kill them um or to make some sort of pact with uh Netanyahu. And given the choice between the two, the one thing they’re not going to do is uh come to power as a result of the Arab vote because the Arab vote is seen as an existential threat to uh and the enemy of Jews whether they’re Zionist or not. One of the Arab parties is very very close to being Zionist. The party of Ram uh of of Abbas is uh Mansour Abbas. Yep. is um uh very close to saying uh that uh Arabs should take part in some form of national service for the state of Israel. I mean, that’s all but Zionist. Um and certainly Israel has a right to exist. Um but even so, um you’re an enemy. uh as three Drews found out. The Drews are a minority that form that that serve in the uh Israeli army. They got beaten up. One got stabbed in a uh uh in a um in a uh bar in uh Tel Aviv uh for speaking Arabic and they’re Zionist. Yeah. So, um that’s the mood of racial hatred within Israel at the moment. And um uh uh I’d be very very surprised uh if Netanyahu now can’t squeeze out of this particular problem. Okay, just to I mean just to give some context to to to those who may not know the inner workings of the Israeli election. So when we say the Netanyahu block has between 53 or 55 seats, it’s Likood and a bunch of other I mean among his his his allies as you may know is is Smrich and Benavir. There’s other parties as well and Likood has it’s projected to get about 24 to 26 seats. It makes them the largest party. Um Eisenot’s actual party Yashar has about 21 seats at the moment. But his his with his coalition that that has, you know, very important Israeli uh politicians that are normally beloved and loved by the BBC and New York Times, people like Yepid and uh Leman and all of these guys um but you know have awful history of Zionism as well. Um but so so it does make Netanyahu’s single party and his broader political block the the biggest block. Um now the risks just again just to to drill down because I want to I want to start speaking soon about what Netanyahu can now do as interim prime minister and how dangerous that can be. But before we get there, um, just tell me why specifically, uh, Eisenkot’s coalition will break down if he goes, I mean, I don’t think he himself wants to do it, but if he were to do a partnership with the Arab parties, why that would break down? Well, because primarily uh, all three of the main leaders of his block said that is precisely what we will not do. We will not come to power on the Arab vote. And on the other side, L could and the right-wing uh um the ex ultraright uh in uh ministers in power said that’s exactly what you will do. So he’ll face a fundamental loss of face. At the moment he’s riding he was riding high in the polls because he was a gruff general who’d lost his chief of staff who’d lost his son and two nephews uh in the war in Gaza. Um he’s regarded as a pragmatist in the West Bank. Um, uh, he’s for settlement, but he would move against, uh, the more extreme, uh, brand of settlers, uh, the Hilltop youth. Um, and, um, uh, he’d be regarded by the rest of the world with a huge sigh of relief. Of course, all of that is deeply deceptive. We’re not talking about a man who would remotely pull troops out of Gaza or southern Lebanon or Syria. In fact, Israel would largely bank almost all of the gains it’s made under Netanyahu, including the West Bank. But you would have a prime minister who who would stop the settlement, the building of the E1 block in the West Bank. Uh which if it were to go ahead would destroy a Palestinian state once and for all. Okay. Now, at the moment, Netanyahu is still the interim prime. Well, he’s the prime minister and will be the interim. He’s a caretaker. He’s a caretaker prime minister. Now um he will try to I think the first option is he’s probably going to try to ek out a majority either by bringing people from Eisenkot’s block or by actually forming a national unity government with with Eisenkot. If he doesn’t able he’s not able to do that he will he will seek election. Um Iran has obviously been I mean most people who see Middle East eye and think about this conflict outside of
Chapter 3: Will Netanyahu strike Iran?
the issue outside of the Gaza genocide think about Israel as you know dragging the region into a war with Iran. Um, just before this election, Trump gave his backing to Netanyahu. There’s been a big buildup both by Israel and the USA rhetorically and in terms of deployments uh to reignite a very hot war there. What do you think the chances are that Netanyahu as caretaker prime minister will now try to strike Iran and and you know use this in some way uh to to to to start again the war with Iran but also to strengthen his position? Well, I think uh a strike on Iran is now more likely than it was before the election. And we know that before the election, he tried hard to persuade his chief of staff, Ayel Zamir, uh to agree to a strike on Iran, or rather to agree to a form of military action which would almost certainly uh have Iranian missiles or drones raining down on Israel. Again, that’s what they wanted. they wanted to provoke an Iranian attack and he stood his ground and said no. So did Trump say no according to uh according to sources uh in Washington. Um so he tried hard to do that. Um and when that failed um he put up an AI generated image of a mushroom cloud uh over Tel Aviv. Um and he briefed against Zamir uh widely to say that to show that his military chiefs um were were were paper tigers and that he was the strong man. and that’s what got their goat and that’s how why they counter briefed. So Netanyahu is constantly ditching his own security forces. You can’t be loyalist to Netanyahu without fearing that one day just like Trump uh he will not turn on you and and and and pull you under a bus. So um we know that is his intention. We know that his is his whole uh um propaganda is to say I am the man that defends Israel which is under existential attack from an Iranian nuclear bomb which doesn’t exist but he continues to say it’s 5 minutes 2 seconds away. Um there’s no evidence of course of that from anyone who actually knows about uh what’s going on uh in Iran, least of all the International Atomic Energy uh agency. Um but that’s what he says. Now that is uh Israel permanently at war. Uh and we can discuss further what a what a continuation of Netanyahu uh will mean both for Israel and for the regime. But none of it looks good. Okay. before we get there. I mean, assuming now, and I completely agree with you, he’s more likely now than ever to to to strike Iran again. Um, how will that impact I mean, I’m assuming he’ll initially get US support? Uh, but how would that be? I mean, is that sustainable? Uh, the midterms elections are coming up as well. Uh, the Arab world, um, you know, they’ve been in a quandry since this this Iran war has started. The GCC has been weakened. Uh we now see that the you know there’s the Saudi Arabia is almost in a full-blown war again with Yemen and the Houthis. Um what what’s going to be the fallout of another big strike by by Israel on Iran? Well, it would be massive damage to Aramco, to uh the gas facilities of Qatar uh and the United Arab Emirates. It would be as if they’ve never struck any deal with Iran before. um and Iran’s uh petrol facilities and and and diesel would be targeted uh and they would target everyone back including Israel. So it will be a much bigger extension of an Iran that feels emboldened and uh strengthened and has and and knows that the there is a critical shortage of um of interceptors uh that America and Israel can deploy. So they had every reason to keep on firing a whole bunch of drones in Israel’s direction. um and uh some sort of sign of what the balance of forces would be like uh have been shown by the Houthies really extensive attacks on Riyad and Riyad airport. That’s another uh issue that is to one side of the main issue. Um and it’s a re awakening of a very uh old war. But just technically uh the Houthis have uh have really paralyzed um uh Riyads and the airport and stop very big conferences taking place all with drones and missiles that uh the Saudi air defense has not been able to intercept. The same thing could happen with Israel and the Gulf States all over again. So there’ll be a very major flare up of a war and it’s the feature of this war that you can start a bout of fighting but it’s not in Trump’s or Netanyahu’s power to stop it quickly. So I think the main break on Netanyahu would be reinvigorated by these results would be Trump uh not not uh his air force chiefs or his or or his chief of staff. What do you think? How do you think Trump’s going to respond though? Well, Trump has Trump’s already stopped it once. I think he he’s got the break on Netanyahu until the midterm elections and then the brakes might come off at some point. Okay, let’s come back to the elections.
Chapter 4: Ben-Gvir’s armed settlers
Right now, Netanyahu, I mean, when you follow this genocide and you follow what’s happened in Gaza post October 7th, to a large extent, media, the liberal world has kind of scapegoed. I mean, they’ve also been critical of Netanyahu of late, but they’ve scapegoed Bengir and Smrich. They’ve painted them as these ultraright people. There’s there’s various sanctions against them from various entities. Um, do you think Netanyahu will consider, you know, allying forming a national uni government with Eisenkot and maybe shedding Smotrich and Ben-Gvir? Well, if he does that, he’s got a very very big problem because neither Smatri nor particularly Ben and Gave are going to walk away with their hands up and say it’s a fair cop. Um uh, Ben-Gvir has got a an armed militia uh many thousand strong. It could be uh as many as 250,000 uh Israelis and settlers now have guns and many would vote for Bengavir. how many guns the settlers have got is a moot point, but we know about the licenses issued and that is now about quarter of a million. Um, and we know just on the ground how armed uh these settlers are because they’re the ones as well as the army, but they’re the ones principally uh who are conducting with increasing lack of restraint uh the pograms uh in in in the West Bank. Now, they’re not going to go away. Um so the first task of a national unity government uh whether it’s led by uh Netanyahu or Eisen Court uh would be to defang the settlers and the CIA report came out recently in an assessment to say Israel’s was very close to being in sa civil war. That’s what they meant. So Eisenkot especially with a fragile coalition if if he actually does topple Netanyahu uh would have a really tough time uh with Bengavir settlers. Now the other point to mention is that the youth are going to vote for uh Ben-Gvir first-time voters and there’s a very interesting poll of firsttime voters their intentions we don’t know what the actual results are but just before the election uh of youth votes right firsttime voters and it’s the exact opposite of what’s happening to the Jewish vote in America Jewish vote in America if you’re under the age of 35 now there’s there is a majority in favor of uh that has abandoned a Zionist state for a one-state solution uh with uh equality between Jew and Arab, right? They they’ve almost abandoned Zionism. The the the youth vote in Israel is the exact opposite. Uh and Bengavir would get something like Bengav and Smrich principally get something like 29 seats in the Knesset if it was just up to the youth vote. So Bengavir has got every reason to believe that he is a prime minister in waiting perhaps not this time around but the next. So the critical point apart from getting rid of Netanyahu it’s more important to get rid of Bengavir and Smotroo than it is Netanyahu and that’s what no one actually sees the fact that Israel itself has changed fundamentally in the last three years. Okay. Now just for context on the 29 seats would I mean if you recall in the start of this start of this program we mentioned that Netanyahu at the moment has 24 seats. So if he gets if Smatri got I mean Beng got 29 seats just by the youth vote that would make him the the biggest party and probably most likely to build a coalition. Um let’s let’s speak about you know Palestinians inside Israel or what what the Israeli government calls Arab-Israelis. um they
Chapter 5: A record Palestinian turnout
have voted more than they have uh you know by all by all counts since we’ve been measuring these elections close to 80% about more than 75 I think the last number was about 78.9% close to 80% of them have voted um they they they brought in seats through Haram and the joint list uh it does seem likely that Netanyahu will still cling to power and as you’ve just mentioned there’s a challenge to him shedding Ben Gavier and Smatri in that in that program um both of them were not keen on having the Arabs even vote in this election. What do you think the consequences will be for Palestinians living in in Israel uh because they came out and voted? Well, this was a big shock uh spec especially to Netanyahu and Bengavir that so many Arabs could come out to vote uh and they could put a spoke in in in the wheels. Um so the first lesson uh this is like a tsunami of Arab voting. people who’ve never voted before uh were voting and the reason why they were voting because they were voting against ethnic cleansing. It was an existential vote and against forcible transfer because every Palestinian feels exactly the same way that it doesn’t matter whether you’re in Gaza or whether you’re in the West Bank or whether you’re a citizen of 48. Um you’re next. You’re targeted next. uh Ben three parties including Ben-Gvir’s party and Smotrich’s party actually had on their manifesto a pledge to Judaize uh Galilee and the Negev. So it’s there. It’s there right in front of you and they can see what’s happening in Hebron. Uh you don’t need to shoot at Israeli soldiers to be turfed out of your home. Um 44,000 people have been uh have have been uh ethnically cleansed from the camps um in Janine uh and Tokarum and this formula is now going to be repeated because Israel has taken one lesson from Gaza is that they can get away with it. So that is now going to be the pattern. you’re going to have a Gaza-like ethnic cleansing in everywhere that Israel feels it can it can do it and there’ll be more and more uh operations like this uh in the West Bank. So this was an existential vote. Now the lesson that Bengavier will draw is fine. Okay, let’s make it much harder for Israeli citizens who are Arab uh to vote. They’re going to be fundamentally disenfranchised. There already are. This is already a total myth that Israel is a democracy. It’s a complete myth that there is equality, anything like equality between uh uh a Jewish citizen and a non-Jewish citizen uh be they Muslim or Christian uh of Israel. Um and there’s certainly no equality between uh a an Arab member of the Knesset and a Jewish member of the Knesset. And now the vote will be taken away from them or they will try and curb it uh in some way. uh limit it just to loyal uh Palestinians or loyal uh Arabs. Um and they’re not going to they’re not going to allow a repeat uh of any form of Palestinian self-expression uh or autonomy uh within Israel or anywhere else for that matter that Israel um uh dominates. So you’ve got a situation where roughly half the population, slightly more than half the population of the land that Israel dominates between the river and the sea uh are completely disenfranchised um and Israel will disenfranchise them further uh until they leave.
Chapter 6: Why outsiders got it wrong
Okay. Now you you spoke to Marin Repo who’s a was a very long and experienced Israeli journalist. Um he seemed to be quite you spoke to him last week just before the the elections um he was quite optimistic that Netanyahu would not uh make it again. Um even last night just you know when the when the twinkling of results came the first the first twinkling looked like looked like Netanyahu would not uh be in in as a powerful position as he has been as he is right now. Um it seems like many people in that mold have called this wrong. uh probably also many people sitting in Europe in the USA who were hoping and you know and often see Israel’s action as as this is all Netanyahu and his allies Matric and Bengavir um what does this say about I mean it looks now like that that’s going to be incorrect and Netanyahu is going to be in pole position to form a government um why do you think they have gotten it wrong and what does it say about how outsiders see this because there’s a very very strong historical uh particularly amongst the older generation uh uh view about Israel which is based on what Israel should look like rather than what it does look like. Uh they have an image of Israel uh which is democratic uh uh which uh given the right constellation of stars and the right Palestinian leaders could form two states uh uh with the Palestinians and calm down. uh that’s never going to happen and what’s happened in the last three years is that Israel has changed fundamentally and that the views that were once uh confined to what Shinbet would call a Jewish terrorist i.e. the Jewish underground. The people who in LA in the last few days have tried to blow up the dome on the rock for instance um they are no longer underground. They are very very mainstream. So uh the entire state has molded itself around Jewish supremacists or fascists and and this is the state that that Netanyahu has led. This is the state uh of a permanent war. This is the state that feels it’s on the cusp of complete once and for all victory, a military victory of the Palestinian conflict. Now, that has yet to be absorbed by uh Andy Bernham or Edm Ediband uh or any Western leader uh that Israel fundamentally will never accept a Palestinian state. Um and uh they’ll be on a rough and long journey, but that’s the journey they have to take.
Chapter 7: Netanyahu’s annexation mission
Now you you you’ve earlier on alluded to the fact that Netanyahu has been in this position before. Since 1996, he’s led Israel for 20 of his 30 years. He’s been he’s been the prime minister. He’s he’s often I mean, you know, he’s been the architect of bringing uh the right-wing under to to to actual power um by by by molding these various coalitions. Um he obviously has a program. He’s we you’ve mentioned his program. You’ve alluded to it if not mentioned it clearly already. Um you know it’s to it’s to strengthen Israel. It’s to ethnically cleanse the Palestinians and it’s to create a lot of disorder by making Israel a regional hedgemon. What are his more longerterm options? I don’t just mean in terms of it’s more specific than that. Yep. Um the the the motivate it’s a huge mistake to misunderestimate or uh or somehow try and minimize the fundamentalism of Netanyahu. You get lured and many American presidents and leaders have done this by his Pennsylvania American accent uh and his slick presentation. uh um the idea that for instance he can address uh the joint houses of Congress and say you know I’m the new kid on the block haha you know Biden everyone was laughing that he’s one of us basically particularly one an American an east coast American he’s in fact a real fundamentalist and his promise that he made to his father Benzian Netanyahu who was a revisionist Zionist uh was as follows I will get the kingdoms of Judea and Samaria back under Jewish state control. In other words, I will enex the West Bank. That’s the one big thing um uh he promised his dad. Uh and that’s what he set his that is his life’s mission. Um if that happened and it’s already happening before our eyes bit by bit, it’s just the speed that varies. um a Palestinian state would be dead forever. So, Israel gets back what in biblical terms is the most cherished part of uh the Kingdom of Judea. Uh it was never the coast. It was always the West Bank and and Palestine will never form the Palestinian state will never be formed. um and the majority of Palestinians will leave uh or they will accept Jewish hegmony and that is his mission and he thinks he’s well on the way to it. Now let’s let’s assume let’s assume we woke
Chapter 8: What if Eisenkot had won?
up today and it seemed like Eisenot’s majority his block was going to was going to win in a majority was going to get 63 or 64 seats. How different would that look for Israel’s trajectory and for the state of the Palestinians? Well, everyone would breathe a huge sigh of collective relief and say, “Ah, at last a pragmatist is in charge. Uh, not an ideologue. He’s the guy uh who insisted that a soldier Aar Aaria who shot dead an injured Palestinian in the head. Um, was tried. I mean, he only got 14 months, but he was tried for for for murder. Um and so and that was a battle in itself. They will not say, “Oh, by the way, Eisenkot is the guy who authored the Dahiya doctrine uh which is the doctrine named from a suburb of Beirut of uh maximum uh civilian destruction uh in retaliation for for firing from Hespa positions. Um and in fact Israel, what Israel has done in a sense in Gaza is nothing new. It’s simply amplified the Dafiy doctrine to uh to the levels of a genocide. But it was Eisenot who first thought of that. So people try and um pick cherrypick from Eisenkot the facets of his behavior that they think they can live with and they are desperate to not put the sanctions against Israel in place. In Bernham’s um uh and Ed Midaban’s trajectory, they will only come in place uh in force in six months time. That gives them quite a lot of leeway to backtrack. They’re desperate to treat uh to reestablish ties with Israel, to military ties and for everyone to say, “Ah, it’s back to October the 6th again. Nothing has changed.” But that is a fundamental mistake uh that they should never be allowed again to make because as I said before, Israel is a different place. Okay. Now, I mean that’s in terms of that’s in terms of how the victory would have been perceived. But let’s that’s that’s for Israel itself. What would it mean for Israeli society? I mean, you’ve already mentioned that, you know, the the settlers are armed. The Ben-Gvir and Smotrich supporters would have felt marginalized that this would have evoked a reaction. But in terms of the the state policy, I completely agree that they would still pursue ethnic cleansing by another means, not like not not as directly as Netanyahu has, but what would it mean? What would that other means? I mean, in terms of state policy, uh it would at least be a period of caution. I don’t think you’d get actually any troop withdrawals. Uh but you wouldn’t get any advances either. Uh I mean uh Israeli lines never stop at a particular point. They keep on pushing and they keep on probing and that’s happening in southern Syria. Uh and they’re right up to the outer suburbs of Damascus at the moment. And they would keep that pressure going. Now with Eisen Court you might get uh some form of quiet uh at least as far as the lines were drawn but I’ll be and uh you might also get a bit more pragmatism when it comes to the uh Israeli effort of establishing allies and bases in the Gulf uh and in Somaliand. I I I you know it’d be very easy for him without having actually to do that much to freeze those particular projects. Uh under Netanyahu they would go full steam ahead. But Eisenhot would also have to be reacting to events. Uh, and if uh Trump said right the brakes are off we attack Iran. I would not expect Eisenkot to say hang on a moment have you considered the consequences? So the answer is not much. you get a certain a change of style and on the other hand domestically he would come under huge pressure uh from from from the settlers and from Benavir uh himself and from our militias. So the actual state of Israel would internally be weaker uh and less cohesive than it is today. But outwardly you’d have a pragmatist in charge. I mean pregnancy but also that Israel would be given a lot more legitimacy. I mean what but one of the the the the pros if there is such a thing that’s come out of the genocide is Israel’s become a pariah state and and Eisenot would then again I mean he would go a large way to you know everyone backing off not everyone not those who are pro Palestinian but a lot of the onlookers are those who are you know hoping the political elites elites would have a chance to back off but I think uh the the the feeling of rage uh and of resistance amongst uh a whole generation uh of activists, Palestinian and and and Western, would stay as it was. Okay, David, thanks again. It’s been a pleasure having you as usual. Any last closing thoughts before we we leave this brief interview? Yeah, I mean I think um this has shown one that Israel doesn’t work by democratic rules that and elections are very circumscrized and very very uh limited. Uh so this election and what happens after it should really be a case study. The next time anyone blurts out, oh but Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East, it’s not. um and that the forces of the right are much more important than the individuals that capture that vote. I.e. the forces of fascism in Israel are much more powerful than either Netanyahu, Bengavir or Smidge. David Hurst, thank you so much.
ELSEWHERE:
Truly Understanding The Israeli “Elections”: Daniel Klien