How Ponzi Stock helps Government Finances
When the Government benefits from Nihilistic Capital Gains
Q: How does the government financially “benefit” from an AI Bubble, SpaceX Bubble, Gambling via “Prediction Markets” like Kalshi and Polymarket, as well as penny Stocks, and Crypto?
A: The “earnings” are taxable. (with exceptions)
QUESTIONS:
Do you think the federal government has a significant interest in reducing the deficit?
Do you think government imposes lower taxes on industries from whom it generates significant taxes?
BEST CRITIQUE: Do you think personal enrichment/campaign contributions outweighs concern for government revenue?
Transcript
12:56
The most important skill of lateral thinking is not concerning yourself as to whether or not the axiom is correct or not, just
whether it works. So axiom is that Ponzi suppression, not and again I’m not calling SpaceX a Ponzi. I’m using that phrase
more generally. Create something, give it far more value than it’s worth, and then have people speculate on it and collect the taxes. That’s what we mean by that by that label.
Um it doesn’t actually have to be true as long as he continues to predict. So in that mental model where the where all
bets are off, you can gamble, you can do things, you can speculate, you could make exaggerated claims as as a CEO about what you’re going to do, you’re
not going to face the consequences, the SEC is going to be defanked. All those things are consistent with
the need to generate nihilistic type capital gains to tax. Um, and so whether
or not we’re right is irrelevant. is is is the model currently operative like and and in our view we’ll see how open
AAI does we’ll see how anthropic does one counter to that for example was S&P not including SpaceX in uh shortly after
the IPO that was that ran counter to our mental model um and so okay that’s that’s a cut against it if we get a few
more cut against it we just discard it um and so thinking in that way is what leads us to make the occasional longshot predict
But it also means we’re not afraid to be wrong and we just move on when we are.
I want to just double tap on that for a second too because that really hit me.
This idea of lottery and like how profitable lotteryies are for state tax revenue. I just looked it up quickly here. The US um state lotteries bring in 30 billion in tax revenue. move. You
need more tax receipts coming in. It’s a very nefarious and you’re right kind of nihilistic and I don’t know, there’s something very dark about we’re going to
get people to gamble and speculate their money back into the the US coffers there to pull it in in tax receipts. James, I want to quickly touch on and I do want
to make sure we get to energy and doomberg outlook on energy markets as well. But I want to quickly touch on the K-shaped economy since the last time we spoke. Is it still kind of going ahead
full steam or are we seeing any further breakdown on either of those K-shaped legs? No, I think it’s going full steam that uh what you’re seeing is the continued ..