The Iranians would get more pushback if they closed the Strait in the absence of an "existential crisis"
In the future, China would be less supportive of a secure Iran closing the Strait
QUESTIONS:
Do you agree that Iran was less disposed to close the strait because they were not facing an “existential crisis”?
How much does China limit Iran’s willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz?
TRANSCRIPT:
9:11
.. huge mistake but they never manage nevertheless managed to make that mistake even greater on the US by fighting uh very cleverly asymmetrically
uh and weaponizing the geography in a manner that they themselves are surprised how successful it was. So all of that is true but nevertheless Iran
still has a tremendous amount of problems. It’s going to have to deal with a tremendous amount of internal strife, economic issues. Yes, this
control of the strait gives the Iranians tremendous amount of leverage. But let’s remind ourselves, the Iranians were attacked in 2024, they did not close the
straits. They were attacked in 2025, they did not close the straits. But in 2026, when they realized that this was an existential threat and when Trump talked about it as an existential threat, that’s when they exercise the closing of the strait, knowing very well that this might be the last time they can do it.
If they going forward start closing the trades willy-nilly over minor disputes rather than existential threats, they’re going to be wasting.
They’re going to destroy that leverage that they have. Um, and they’re going to have problems with China and many other countries. Some of these countries were not in favor of them doing so, but they could understand that they would do so because it was an existential threat.
So, there’s a limit to how much you can use that at the end of the day as well.
So I think it’s important not to overstate it, but I think the best thing that people can recognize or the minimum that one can recognize at this point