US Hawks Consider Nuclear Brinkmanship with Russia by calling Putin's "Bluff"

After Overthrowing Saddam on Sketchy "Evidence," US Hawks Won't take Putin Seriously until he Proves his Nukes Work

Iraq — 1% Confidence: Act as a Certainty

In 2009, I cited Ron Suskind’s interview about his book “The One Percent Doctrine,” which quoted Vice President Dick Cheney saying we should act as if a 1% risk that al-Qaida could get assistance from Pakistan in building a nuclear weapon is a certainty.

If there’s a 1 percent chance that Pakistani scientists are helping al-Qaida build or develop a nuclear weapon, we have to treat it as a certainty, in terms of our response,’ Cheney said. He paused to assess his declaration. ‘It’s not about our analysis or finding a preponderance of evidence,’ he added. ‘It’s about our response. (PBS News Hour)

Russia — Require 100% Certainty (Now)

Fast forward to today — unlike al-Qaida or Saddam Hussein, Putin is actually armed with thousands off nuclear weapons, and some pundits are suggesting that maybe the nuclear weapons haven’t been maintained properly and Putin is bluffing. They “reason” that Russia’s nuclear red lines should be treated as a bluff unless Russia proves to us that they actually have working nuclear weapons by performing a nuclear demonstration test.

Granted, one difference between al-Qaida and Russia was that al-Qaida was not a state actor, while Iraq and Russia are.

Putin is the new “Hitler,” but he will back down

Russia hawks like to depict Putin as a new “Hitler”, a ruthless and aggressive dictator who recklessly sacrifices his people for his ambition of conquering all of Europe. Yet at the same time some of these hawks are apparently willing to bet that Russia has not been able to maintain any of those 4000+ nuclear weapons, or if they have, Putin will back down if “we” attack targets deep in Russia, because he won’t want to use his nuclear weapons out of a rational desire for to avoid US retaliation and a nuclear Armageddon.

The Hypersonic Factor

Alternatively, Russia could respond with conventionally-armed hypersonic missiles.