Chapter 7: The Kaliningrad flashpoint
Why are some of the European leaders threatening or giving the impression that they’re threatening this uh Russian exclave? This part of Russia that’s not there you see it on the map surrounded by NATO but not contiguous to uh the Russian mainland. Why the threat just provocation?
Yes. To show the map. We can help people to understand this. Uh before the end of 1991, Lithuania, Barus and the countries to the north, the Latia and Estonia, uh the Baltic states were all part of the Soviet Union. So, Kaliningrad was contiguous inside the Soviet Union. With the end of the Soviet uh union in December 1991, the Baltic states and Barus became independent countries. And so Kaliningrad, which was part of the Russian Federation after World War II, it was East Prussia under Hitler. uh after uh the Soviet Union bore the brunt of defeating Hitler, it became part of the Soviet Union and uh it was contiguous within the Soviet Union. Now it’s not contiguous with Russia because the uh dissolution of the Soviet Union left it as an enclave.
Why anybody would threaten Russia at all in its territorial integrity is beyond me. Anyone who knows the history of Ukraine and says, “Well, Professor Saxs, you Russia did exactly that to Ukraine” doesn’t understand that for 36 years, or I should say 36 years ago, the United States and Germany in the context of German reunification told the Russian leadership in no uncertain terms and no ambiguity and the Soviet leadership in no uncertain terms and no ambiguity that NATO would not move eastward and threaten Russia’s security. We cheated. We lied. We helped to bring in a pro-NATO government through a coup in February 2014.
The Russians have been making the same point for 36 years. Do not threaten us. We don’t want to threaten you. which is exactly what President Putin said last week in a widely reported statement but not reported properly. The statement was we do not want to threaten Europe but Russia has security interests and that is true. All countries have security interests. And it was the United States and Germany that cheated on that core topic. And our top diplomats knew all along that the cheating by the United States to break the commitment of no NATO enlargement would be terrible trouble. But the ones that cheated thought the US is so powerful, uh, so invincible, so irresistible that it could cheat and get away with it. They did not expect this war. Actually, just like Trump did not expect an ongoing war with Iran. They exaggerated American power vastly. They didn’t listen to the Russians. And now until today these Europeans and I helped many of these countries over the years many of them uh Estonia and Poland and many countries in the region including Ukraine they are not thinking straight and they’re going to provoke a disaster unless they understand the real history of this conflict and back off so that Russia can have its security and these countries can have their security. But if they provoke, this will be a bloody disaster. I’m going to play two clips for you. One is General Christopher Donahghue, then the head of Sentcom, this is a year ago
Chapter 8: Avoiding nuclear catastrophe
about Kinenrad, and one is President Putin two days ago on Kinenrad. So Chris, back to back cut number seven, and then cut number one.
If you look at Kaliningrad at its, you know, you can argue back and forth, but it’s about 47 miles wide, surrounded by NATO on all sides. There’s absolutely no reason why that A2A bubble to deter Russia, we cannot take that down from the ground in a time frame that is unheard of and faster than we’ve ever been able to do. We’ve already planned that. We’ve already developed it.
If it comes to a direct attack on the Russian Federation, specifically targeting Kaliningrad or perhaps other territories, then the question of the Russian Federation using all the weaponry at its disposal will inevitably and immediately appear on the agenda.
Are is are human beings suicidal? This is really the issue, right? Do we not understand? Don’t have a nuclear war. How complicated is that really? really how complicated is that? In in my view, it’s very straightforward. Uh Russia should not trespass American red lines and we should not trespass Russian red lines. This is so straightforward. I I want this world to survive for my children and grandchildren. I don’t want it to be blown up over Kaliningrad. And this blustering and bolstering and war planning and game planning is grotesque. It’s much more important that we just understand all sides need security and we should respect the security interests of other powers, especially other nuclear powers, just as we expect them to respect our security as well. It’s mutual. It’s the golden rule. It’s the way to survive on this planet.
Professor Sachs, thank you very much. I know you’re on the other side of the world. Thank you for your time. Safe travels, my dear friend. We’ll look forward to seeing you next week. See you next week. Thanks a lot. Sure. Thank you.
ELSEWHERE:
Kaliningrad (Wikipedia)
Kaliningrad,[a] until 1946 known in English as Königsberg,[b] is the largest city and administrative centre of Kaliningrad Oblast, an exclave of Russia between Lithuania and Poland (663 kilometres (412 mi) west of the bulk of Russia). Located on the Pregolya River at the head of the Vistula Lagoon, it is the only ice-free Russian port on the Baltic Sea. Its population in 2020 was 489,359.[11] Kaliningrad is the second-largest city in the Northwestern Federal District, after Saint Petersburg, and the eighth-largest city on the Baltic Sea
..the original German population fled or was expelled after the end of World War II, when the territory was annexed by the Soviet Union, and in the following few years. In October 1945, only about 5,000 Soviet civilians lived in the territory.[81] Between October 1947 and October 1948 approximately 100,000 Germans were forcibly moved to Germany,[clarification needed][82] and by 1948 about 400,000 Soviet civilians had arrived in the Oblast.[81]
Today, the overwhelming majority of Kaliningrad’s residents are Russians settled after 1945, and their descendants. A minority of the population is from other Slavic ethnic groups, including Belarusians and Ukrainians. Kaliningrad today is also home to small communities of Tatars, Germans, Armenians, Poles, and Lithuanians.
TIM’S COMMENTS:
Throughout the Cold War the US’s goal was to defeat the Soviet Union, but “victory” can sometime be defeating. Capitalism was healthier when there was a strong labor movement and a Cold War foe keeping it honest.
Capitalism both values competition and seeks to eliminate it through monopoly/oligarchy. There are American Capitalists who fear Mayor Mamdani and the “leftish” side of the Democratic Party. I see the potential for the “left” to keep the Capitalists honest, hopefully re-invigorating the system (if authoritarianism doesn’t run amuck).
We also need people who can communicate to the American public the abuses that rest of the world is aware of, but the American people are not.
QUESTIONS:
How does the US justify breaking the agreement that it made with the Soviet Union to halt the spread of NATO Eastward?
Why does the US / NATO think it is to its advantage to further violate its agreement regarding Kalingrad?
Is Professor Sachs right that the US thought it could cheat and get away with it?